Invest 98-L may move into Gulf of Mexico next week

The WDSU weather team is closely watching several areas in the tropics. The main area of ​​interest for us is Invest 98-L. Tropical Wave Invest 98-L is near the southern Windward Islands. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next two days and could move into the Gulf of Mexico next week around Wednesday. Invest 98-L is moving into the Caribbean. It will move WNW across the warm waters of the Caribbean with low wind shear. It will then pass far south of the Dominican Republic on Friday, and does not look like much at that time. It will move south of Jamaica Saturday. It is looking like a depression by then. It is then forecast to head possibly towards the Yucatan Channel by about Tuesday of next week. If you look at the Spaghetti plots you will notice the models are all grouped near the Yucatan Channel, over the Yucatan Peninsula or Cuba. Where Invest 98-L enters the Gulf will make a big impact on where it goes. The GFS Model is now trending more to the West taking Invest 98-L towards the Yucatan Peninsula, and then North into the Central Gulf. We do not like that scenario. The European Model is very different. It takes Invest 98-L towards West Cuba and then into the Gulf and towards the Florida Peninsula between Tampa and Longboat Key, then crosses Florida into the Atlantic, then back into Georgia. The models are not consistent, and they do not agree. Invest 98-L has not formed yet, so there will be daily changes in the output. The models to look at are the GFS and the Euro. So what are the steering currents? There will be an area of ​​high pressure East of Invest 98-L that will help steer it North eventually. The cold front that moves through our area Monday, will be offshore with winds aloft out of the West or SW. High pressure will be building in behind that front. It’s all about timing. Will the cold forehead wash out, and the high pressure behind it dominate? It’s too far out to say. This is a situation where you know there is something to monitor, and you go about your business. Besides that system, we’re watching major hurricane Fiona, Tropical Storm Gaston in the north-central Atlantic, a tropical wave over Africa forecast to move into the Atlantic waters Thursday with a medium chance of development over the next five days, and another tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands with a low chance of development over the next 5 days. For much more information on Fiona, click here. Stay with WDSU for the latest.

The WDSU weather team is closely watching several areas in the tropics.

The main area of ​​interest for us is Invest 98-L.

Tropical Wave Invest 98-L is near the southern Windward Islands.

This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next two days and could move into the Gulf of Mexico next week around Wednesday.

Invest 98-L is moving into the Caribbean. It will move WNW across the warm waters of the Caribbean with low wind shear. It will then pass far south of the Dominican Republic on Friday, and does not look like much at that time. It will move south of Jamaica Saturday. It is looking like a depression by then. It is then forecast to head possibly towards the Yucatan Channel by about Tuesday of next week.

If you look at the Spaghetti plots you will notice the models are all grouped near the Yucatan Channel, over the Yucatan Peninsula or Cuba. Where Invest 98-L enters the Gulf will make a big impact on where it goes.

The GFS Model is now trending more to the West taking Invest 98-L towards the Yucatan Peninsula, and then North into the Central Gulf. We do not like that scenario.

The European Model is very different. It takes Invest 98-L towards West Cuba and then into the Gulf and towards the Florida Peninsula between Tampa and Longboat Key, then crosses Florida into the Atlantic, then back into Georgia.

The models are not consistent, and they do not agree. Invest 98-L has not formed yet, so there will be daily changes in the output. The models to look at are the GFS and the Euro.

So what are the steering currents? There will be an area of ​​high pressure East of Invest 98-L that will help steer it North eventually. The cold front that moves through our area Monday, will be offshore with winds aloft out of the West or SW. High pressure will be building in behind that front. It’s all about timing. Will the cold forehead wash out, and the high pressure behind it dominate? It’s too far out to say.

This is a situation where you know there is something to monitor, and you go about your business.

Besides that system, we’re watching major hurricane Fiona, Tropical Storm Gaston in the north-central Atlantic, a tropical wave over Africa forecast to move into the Atlantic waters Thursday with a medium chance of development over the next five days, and another tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands with a low chance of development over the next 5 days.

For much more information on Fiona, click here.

Stay with WDSU for the latest.

.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published.