OPEC keeps 2022 oil demand growth forecast stable

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided on Tuesday to maintain stable its global oil demand growth estimates for 2022 and 2023 compared to last month’s assessment.

It thus emerges from OPEC’s latest monthly report on the oil market, that “growth in world oil demand in 2022 remains unchanged from the assessment of the previous month”, at 3.1 million barrels per day. (mb/d), for a total demand estimated at 100.03 mb/d.

According to the Organization, this forecast takes into account the “additional growth in demand” due to the recent trend to use more fuels for energy production.

Demand in OECD countries is expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2022, an increase close to that expected in non-OECD countries, estimated at 1.5 million barrels per day.

Looking to 2023, oil demand growth is also unchanged from last month, at 2.7 million barrels per day, supported by the performance of non-OECD countries, including demand is expected to grow by 2.1 million barrels per day.

Total demand is estimated at 102.73 million barrels per day, above pre-pandemic levels, it added.

“Oil demand in 2023 should be supported by continued strong economic performance in major consuming countries, and potential improvements in Covid-19 related restrictions, and reduced geopolitical uncertainties,” as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is still ongoing, says the same source.

OPEC therefore expects global economic growth “to remain robust, at 3.1% in 2022”, on a point related to the economy, underlines that consumer spending in value terms in recent months has been better than expected.

Weaker economic growth “appears to have been offset so far by a combination of social protection measures in advanced economies, rising wages and salaries, and increased debt-financed consumption in the United States.” , as well as consumers who dipped into their savings,” noted the monthly report, highlighting the “rebound” in global tourism.

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