Experts also anticipate an even tighter monetary policy in the United States and in European countries.
A majority of chief economists polled by the World Economic Forum (WEF) expect a global recession this year. They also anticipate an even tighter monetary policy in the United States and in European countries.
In total, nearly two-thirds of these specialists expect a recession. Among them, 18% consider it extremely likely, more than twice as many as a few months ago. Only a third see a recession as unlikely.
On the other hand, a consensus seems to be emerging on gloomy economic forecasts for this year, particularly in the United States and for European states. Almost all speak of low growth.
For China, as many anticipate a small growth as those who foresee a significant increase. The recent easing of the “zero Covid” policy should help boost the economy, but the extent of this improvement has yet to be established.
On the inflation side, expectations depend on the region. A significant figure in China is considered by only 5% of chief economists, against more than half for European countries.
Nine out of ten specialists see low demand and higher costs for businesses. More than 85% foresee a decrease in operational expenses. For all those interviewed, political tensions should continue to be reflected in trade, investment and technology flows.
By contrast, disruptions to supply chains are not expected to significantly affect business. For almost 70%, the impact of the cost of living, considered by other experts polled by the WEF as the main threat in the short term, should subside by the end of the year. A similar volume expects a decrease in the energy crisis, the organization also claims.